LIFE did not change radically on the day I learned the Rule of 72. But it certainly made a little more sense.
The Rule of 72 is a neat mathematical shortcut for figuring out how many years it will take for an amount to double, given a fixed annual rate of interest. All you have to do is divide 72 by the rate of return or interest. So if your time deposit earns six percent, for example, this means you'll have to wait 12 years to get double your original amount.
Let's say you managed to keep your hands off your yearend bonuses in 2007, and you estimate that you'll need double that amount in eight years—when your eldest starts college, or when you want to have enough for a down payment on a house. Divide 72 by eight, and the rule suggests that you'll have to find a way for that money to grow at nine percent interest each year.
Those of you who studied business or learned about investing while still in the pits of puberty are probably appalled that something so basic could have escaped a grown woman for so long. You'd be surprised. I did a quick informal poll of 10 of the smartest people I know—all of them well into their thirties, which is why they shall go unnamed here—and only one knew the Rule of 72. One! (Granted, most of the lovely people I know are humanities types.)
Of course, we all need a lot more than the Rule of 72 to make better decisions concerning our savings, spending, budgeting and retirement plans. One doesn't learn overnight the value of patience, or the need to avoid making financial decisions based on fear, or why dividend reinvestment will make you feel better, in the long run, than the fleeting pleasures of retail therapy.
But realizing how little one knows about the basics of financial literacy helps, for starters. We know that about 84 percent of all Filipinos were found functionally literate (meaning they weren't "innumerate") as of 2003. No one measures financial literacy, but one indicator could be our savings—and here the figures are dismal indeed.
Throughout the 1990's, Indonesia had a lower per capita income than the Philippines. But in the entire decade, we reported a higher gross domestic savings (GDS) rate—savings as a percentage of GDP—only once, in 1999, compared to Indonesia. In that year, our GDS stood at 19.8 percent, compared to Indonesia's 13.2 percent. In contrast, Thailand reported a GDS of 35.4 percent; Malaysia, 37.7 percent; and Singapore, 51.2 percent. For all the other nine years, Indonesians saved more than we did—even if their pay packets, on average, were thinner than ours.
"Money is better than poverty, if only for financial reasons," Woody Allen has said. We may have limited or no influence over some strategies that can raise a country's ability to save, such as land redistribution and rationalizing population growth. But we can certainly begin with ourselves and our households, and the start of a year is a great time for setting or reviewing financial goals.
(Appears in the Op-Ed pages of today's Sun.Star Cebu.)
9 comments:
Over here, i think the rule of 72 also explains why the poor don't save. Until recently, our per capita GDP grew at an average 1.5% (or thereabouts). That means that an adult of median age (e.g. 33 years old), on the average can double his/her income in 48 years which is beyond retirement age. Faced with such a bleak lifetime prospect, it would be rational to live for the moment.
Residents of countries with higher per capita income growth (at 3%) would see their income double in 24 years (on average), also not a short time horizon but at least it looks far less hopeless. This element of hope encourages the mentality to save.
Hi, cvj!
That's interesting: hope, instead of prudence or, in some cases, anxiety as a factor that encourages saving.
There's also a persistent tendency to consider children as a form of old-age security, I think, and that may influence one's decision to save or invest. Another factor could be religion: people who take the Beatitudes literally may not see much of an incentive to save. :) I don't have access to a specific set of notes right now, but I once heard an economist lecture about how he found that Jain merchants make more prudent financial decisions than do members of other sects, because they see wealth creation as morally acceptable.
Cheers,
Isolde
Hi sol,
The other thing to do to double one's wealth (or net worth)in one fell swoop is to get married.
gatsby1313
Hey, you! What's this, Jane Austen's Guide to Financial Planning? :)
Cheers,
Sol
Hi Sol,
How much money should a person have to be able to stop working completely today, and never run out of money for the rest of his/her life? It depends on one's lifestyle I guess, but a comfy life in Cebu or Manila may require 30 million pesos at least. Assuming a conservative 4% annual interest (based on the historic yield on T bills), this gives you P30M X 0.04= P1.2M a year, or P100K a month. If you can live on half of that (P50K/month), then you only need P15M. So, besides the rule of 72, another helpful rule of thumb is the SWR (safe withdrawal rate) which, in the example above, is 4%. The SWR is the rate at which one can withdraw from the pot without fear of ever running out of money. Check out this site http://www.early-retirement.org for more info.
gatsby1313
Hi! That really helps a lot. Salamat! It's also a tad scary, no? A retiree who starts out with P15M (and that's beyond most wage earners' reach) but merely parks his/her funds in a savings account would be broke in less than 25 years. I am almost tempted to go re-read Austen, but I guess the Bengen, Trinity and other studies are wiser choices for now. :)
Cheers,
Sol
P.S. In the case you cited, what are the assumptions re (1) asset allocation and (2) inflation?
Sol,
The asset allocation used is 50:50 stocks:bonds, and the inflation rate is 3.5%. These are US figures. I erred in using these figures to be applied in the Philippine setting. Inflation is higher in the Philippines, so one would have to tilt heavier into stocks, and withdraw less than 4% annually to allow the nest egg to last a really long time.
The nest egg amount involved intimidates a lot of people. There are no easy answers on how to accumulate this (legally) in the first place. You mentioned Lisa Keister's book. The title is "Getting Rich". I actually have a copy of it. Keister's research shows that those who get rich in America have the following characteristics:
1. entrepreneurial
2. educated (college degrees and higher)
3. invest primarily in stocks and bonds
4. Jewish
5. married (yep, Austen was on to something)
The other thing she found is that inheritance plays a minor role in wealth formation in the US.
Keister has another book I haven't read yet. It's "Chinese Business Groups". It might prove an interesting read to those who want to learn how the Chinese get ahead financially.
gatsby1313
Thank you! I recently finished reading "Money, A Memoir," in which author Liz Perle examines why most women are in denial over the need for retirement planning and gaining better control over their financial decisions. (That Jane Austen! :)
As for saving up for a nest egg, the Inquirer reported yesterday, quoting a Citibank study, that only one in 10 Filipinos is "consciously saving up for retirement." Scary!
That story’s here
Again, thanks so much for your inputs.
Cheers,
Sol
P.S. Just a minor clarification: I actually like Austen (hehe). She was obviously frustrated with how a woman's security was so tied up with how well she married, but Austen chose to treat the subject with wit, instead of ranting like a common scold. :)
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