For New Year's Eve, a little humble pie

If we believed all the sis-boom-bah generated by government officials, some business leaders and journalists, it wouldn't be surprising for Cebuanos to assume that our economy—and by extension, the regional economy—is the most dynamic outside of Luzon.

So when a Cebu-based economist corrected my assumption, it was quite a surprise. "Western Visayas has been overtaking us in the last three to four years," Dr. Victorina Zosa of the University of San Carlos' research office said in a recent interview.

Whatever it is they're doing in the plains of Panay and the beaches of Boracay, the economy of Western Visayas has been the largest outside of Luzon since 2003. As of last year, it was the fourth largest contributor to the gross domestic product (GDP), outstripped only by the powerhouses of the National Capital Region, Calabarzon and Central Luzon.

In 2005 and 2006, the "race" was rather close: Western Visayas accounted for 7.2 percent of national GDP in both years, compared to 7.1 percent from Central Visayas. But consider too, that our northwestern neighbors slowed down in these two years—unlike 2001 to 2004, when its regional GDP consistently outpaced that of Central Visayas.

Between October 2000 and October 2007, Western Visayas reduced its unemployment rate by 4.4 percentage points. Central Visayas' gains were more modest, at 1.9 percentage points. (As of October 2007, unemployment stood at 6 percent in Western Visayas and 5.9 percent in Central Visayas, although their underemployment rate, at 22 percent, was almost double ours.)

It helps us to know that despite growth in construction, tourism and information technology, in 2006—for the first time since 2000—the Central Visayan economy grew slower than the national average. From third fastest in 2000, we dropped last year to sixth, in terms of GDP growth rate—growing slower, in fact, than the economies of Northern Mindanao, Central Mindanao and Ilocos. (Our exporters' troubles with a rising peso are probably part of the reason.)

The point of this exercise isn't to appeal to regional pride but, in this season of resolutions and self-assessment, to remind ourselves of the need for a more objective appraisal of how well we're contributing to the national economy.

Social historians tell us that in the early 20th century, Iloilo City's economic decline stemmed mostly from labor unrest and an inaccurate reading of its economic performance and prospects.

"Its popular culture, newspapers and theater fostered a working-class consciousness that was far in advance of Iloilo's role in the global hierarchy of cities," Alfred McCoy writes. "While its stevedores demonstrated the militancy and solidarity of an industrial proletariat, the city itself was an expendable entrepot at the bottom rung of the transport chain, not an indispensable industrial center."

What new ideas or products are behind the reemergence of the original "queen city of the south"? What connections can we forge with it and the rest of Western Visayas? There is much to gain from working well with one's neighbors—and in learning to not always believe one's own PR.

(Appears in the Op-Ed pages of today's Sun.Star Cebu. Because an overcrowded academic and professional workload has failed--miserably--to make a pessimist out of me, I'm writing a weekly column again. Wish me luck!)